Dollar at 47 Hryvnias: NBU Gives Unpleasant Forecast for Exchange Rate.

Updated Forecasts from the National Bank: What Awaits the National Currency

The National Bank of Ukraine has published its updated macroeconomic forecasts, which anticipate the depreciation of the national currency in the coming years. According to the baseline scenario, by the end of 2025, the exchange rate may reach 44.5 Hryvnias per dollar.

It is predicted that in 2026 the rate will decline to 46.3 Hryvnias per dollar, and in 2027 it will be 46.5 Hryvnias. In this case, the average annual exchange rate in 2027 may exceed 47 Hryvnias per dollar. Regarding inflation, it is expected to amount to 8.7% in 2025.

The regulator also developed a negative scenario, under which the situation looks significantly worse. In this case, the rate may reach 47.7 Hryvnias per dollar as early as 2025, rise to 52.4 Hryvnias in 2026, and to 55.1 Hryvnias in 2027. In this scenario, inflation could reach 17.9% as early as this year, and the Ukrainian economy may enter a two-year recession.

As of May 9, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar on the interbank market has decreased by 2 kopecks for sale, while the euro has increased by 7 kopecks for purchase and by 4 kopecks for sale. On the cash market, the dollar can be purchased within 41.20-41.80 Hryvnias, while the euro is sold for 46.50-47.20 Hryvnias. In exchange offices, the dollar is traded for 41.42-41.50 Hryvnias, and the euro for 46.98-47.18 Hryvnias.

Analysis

The updated forecasts from the National Bank are an important signal for the Ukrainian market and the business community. The rising exchange rate of the dollar and inflation may significantly impact the country's economy and financial markets. Therefore, it is essential to closely monitor these indicators and prepare for possible economic fluctuations.